Father-to-be Johnson cradles consecutive wins

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jimmie Johnson recently went 10 races without a victory, many speculated that the four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion was in a season-slump. Now that Johnson has won back-to-back races at Sonoma, CA and New Hampshire, it's time to put that theory to rest.

Thanks in part to Marcos Ambrose's misfortune in the closing laps at Sonoma, Johnson claimed his first road course win. Ambrose held the lead during a caution with seven laps remaining, but lost his track position after he turned his engine off to conserve fuel and then had trouble restarting the car. That allowed second-place Johnson to take the lead for good.

It was a different story for Johnson in New Hampshire, where he had his hands full with Kurt Busch in the closing laps. Just after the final restart with eight laps to go, Busch made a bump-and-run move on Johnson to take the lead.

But Johnson was set on returning the favor, and doing so with aggression.

"I was livid," Johnson said. "I was so [ticked] off that he got into me, and I almost lost it at one point. Just kind of sliding and it took off and the tires started chattering, and that's usually when you're turned around.

"Once I got back going and I was still in second, I thought, 'Man, I hope I catch you. I look forward to this if I catch you.' And my incentive was not necessarily to pass him. All I had to do was get to his bumper, and I was going to win the race, if he gave me that option by moving me out of the way."

Johnson reeled in Busch and then pulled even with him before Johnson made the winning pass with less than two laps to go.

Unlike some races this season, Johnson and Busch prevented New Hampshire from erupting into a post-race pit road skirmish.

"The thought was ten points winning would look a lot better stacked in our deck than his chip count, that was the original thought," said Busch, who ended up finishing third after Tony Stewart passed him on the final lap. "Driving into turn three, I had all intentions of passing him on the inside and trying to cut underneath him at the apex. I just got into him a little bit in the left rear and nudged him up, and we were able to squeak on by.

"Your motive is always to pass a guy clean, and you always want to make sure that when you do pass him that he's not completely upset with you, and then we'll go and race again, if he's going to come back and try to pass me at the end. He did, and he did great."

Johnson's fifth win placed him in a tie with Denny Hamlin for most victories in the series so far this season. Each driver who qualifies for the championship Chase is awarded 10 bonus points for each race he wins during the regular season. There are nine races remaining before the Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.

"The ten points are really important," Johnson said. "It's nice to be even with Denny, and to have a gap on some of the other guys right now."

Indeed, these are good times for Johnson. His wife, Chandra, is expected to deliver the couple's first child any day soon. If her delivery occurs during an upcoming race weekend, Camping World Truck Series regular Aric Almirola will serve as Johnson's backup driver.

Daytona (July 3) and Chicagoland (July 10) are the next races on the schedule before Sprint Cup takes its second-to-last off-weekend of the season.

"I know it's kind of a weird situation," Johnson said. "[Almirola] is really hoping for the opportunity, and I know he'll do an amazing job given the opportunity, and then I want to stay in my ride and try to win as many races as I can.

"It just all depends on when the little baby decides to make her move and when she wants to come into the world, and if she's anything like her mother, she'll be late, so I should be fine, which puts us into the off-weekend, nice and deep."

In recent years, it's usually Tony Stewart who heats up in the summer time. It appears Johnson has replaced Stewart as the summer sensation this year. If Johnson remains hot for the next couple of months, just imagine what he will be like during Chase, the time when he really shines.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.